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Comparing Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets

The point has been made many times here that exposure to downturns needs to be viewed in the context of how much a market rose during the boom.  I thought it would be interesting to test this by comparing the total percentage gain during the boom years to the total percentage drop from peak to date across a bunch of markets, to see if I could establish a clear relationship or correlation between the two.
For the purposes of this comparison, I used the following definitions:

Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/SeattleBubble


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 11:38
The Bundesbank would have done better

The poor old ECB are having trouble meeting their inflation target. The provisional July inflation number went above 4.1 percent. As the chart suggest, the inflation rate is drifting further away where it should be….
Original Source: ukhousebubble.blogspot.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 11:20
Greenspan on the Economy, Pt. 1


Original Source: www.mortgagenewsdaily.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 10:42
Greenspan on the Economy, Pt. 2


Original Source: www.mortgagenewsdaily.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 10:42
Freddie aims to slow foreclosures

Read full story for latest details.

Original Source: rss.cnn.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 10:15
Banks are starting to capitulate; Hedge funds are buying up delinquent mortgages, positive steps toward accelerating price drops.

Over the past year the major investment banks that basically poisoned themselves by drinking there own koolaid are starting to finally write the bad loans it written down and mark to market.Last Friday the national Australian national bank did what all the other banks have been took scared to do, mark down it’s mortgages to market. …
Original Source: bubblemore.blogspot.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:52
Banks are starting to capitulate; Hedge funds are buying up delinquent mortgages, positive steps toward accelerating price drops.

Over the past year the major investment banks that basically poisoned themselves by drinking there own koolaid are starting to finally write the bad loans it written down and mark to market.Last Friday the national Australian national bank did what all the other banks have been took scared to do, mark down it’s mortgages to market. …
Original Source: bubblemore.blogspot.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:52
Freddie in foreclosure aid plan

Read full story for latest details.

Original Source: rss.cnn.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:43
Blacks and Hispanics twice as likely to get high-cost mortgages

A study by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition released today suggests that blacks and Hispanics are much more likely to have risky and poorly-underwritten loans. But interestingly, the disparity is pretty significant, even among more wealthy borrowers.

During 2006, middle- and upper-income (MUI) African-Americans were twice or more as likely to receive high-cost loans as MUI whites in 155 of the metro areas analyzed (71.4 percent). Furthermore, MUI Hispanics were twice or more as likely to receive high-cost loans as MUI whites in 45 of the metro areas analyzed (22.5 percent).

Original Source: www.businessweek.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:39
The Coming Hotel Bust

From Abha Bhattari and Fred Bernstein at the NY Times: Terrible Timing for a Hotel Boom A record number of hotels are opening this year, and the timing could not be worse.

Until recently, the industry was in the midst of a major boom, and it was during those good times that the hotel companies made plans to build many of the new rooms. … Nationwide, hotel occupancy levels have been hovering…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/CalculatedRisk


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:17
Glenn Beck Mocks the Realtors’ Chief Economists

Glenn Beck mocks the current and former chief economists at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun & David Lereah for the their history of bad predictions. …
Original Source: bubblemeter.blogspot.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:10
Foreclosures linked to subprime fraud

Mortgage scammers took advantage of loopholes in New York State lending laws to defraud homeowners and lending institutions all over the state, according to a new report released Thursday.

Original Source: rss.cnn.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 9:01
Illegal Population Plummets- Housing Vacancies Will Rise

According to the Arizona Republic this morning:

The illegal-immigrant population has fallen an estimated 11 percent nationwide over the past year and perhaps even more in Arizona, with stricter law enforcement a likely cause, according to a report issued Wednesday by a Washington organization that promotes less immigration….
Original Source: housingdoom.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:59
Paulson on the Economy


Original Source: www.mortgagenewsdaily.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:52
What does this mean?

The UK government has just published its views on financial stability and depositor protection. The document has this rather interesting paragraph (see para 2.67):”The IASB (International Accounting Standards Board)has set up expert advisory panel to examine whether existing IASB requirements and guidance on the accounting and valuation of structured products could be improved. The advisory panel, which had its first meeting in early June, should draw upon the analysis undertaken by European banking and securities regulators. A…
Original Source: ukhousebubble.blogspot.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:50
Links: A big discount on a Little Tokyo loft

Jwkdt1nc_2
I’m test-driving a new feature: Morning links from here and there.

From Redfin via Curbed LA: A…
Original Source: feeds.latimes.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:30
Foreclosures linked to subprime fraud- report

Mortgage scammers took advantage of loopholes in New York State lending laws to defraud homeowners and lending institutions all over the state, according to a new report released Thursday.

Original Source: rss.cnn.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:25
Mortgage rates drop as oil eases

Mortgage rates fell slightly this week according to a weekly report released Wednesday, as lower oil prices briefly ease fears of price inflation.

Original Source: rss.cnn.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:15
Subprime fraud rampant in New York - report

Mortgage scammers took advantage of loopholes in New York State lending laws to defraud homeowners and lending institutions all over the state, according to a new report released Thursday.

Original Source: rss.cnn.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 8:10
Krugman: Housing Bill, At Best, Will Make Modest Dent In Foreclosures

According to Paul Krugman in the RGE Monitor today, the new housing bill is a "temporary fix":

Even if this bill succeeds…, it … will, at best, make a modest dent in … foreclosures. And it does nothing … for those who aren’t in danger of losing their houses but are seeing much if not all of their net worth wiped out — a particularly bitter blow to Americans … nearing retirement……
Original Source: housingdoom.com


  31 July, 2008| housingblogs | Comments (0) @ 7:56
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