Five Characteristics for the Unforgiving New World

Tom Stevenson writes yet another thoughtful column in the Daily Telegraph. He says we’re in the “Great Deleverage” and lists five traits the best investments will share in this world:They will have rock-solid finances. They will not be dependent on external
funding because they will be well-capitalised and throwing off cash. Because
their weaker rivals will be going to the wall, they will see plenty of
opportunities to reinvest this spare cash in the business because their
return on capital will be high.
…
Original Source: www.controlledgreed.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 21:21

Maintain Your Health During the Financial Crisis

/img>As I was standing in line today for a free flu shot at my office, it dawned on me that I should remind other value investors to maintain their health during this financial crisis. I am sure that other value investors sifting through the wreckage of this stock market decline are extremely busy and stressed by all the decisions that need to be made during this time of potential opportunity.
…
Original Source: www.fatpitchfinancials.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 21:08

Sensible Investing guides: In their 40s

When you are in your 40s, a number of things are critical. This will be the time where you can experience financial comfort and this can also be the time when you feel the pinch of the times. This will all depend on how you performed in your 20s and 30s. This will be the time where you will experience your savings restraints during 20s and 30s. Say of example you are disciplined in your saving ways then this age will be the time that you can say that you will gain some of the fruits of your labor. Since you already have some money in the bank, then this will be the opportune time to upgrade to a bigger home or you can now shop for a new home or opt for major revamps on the home.
…
Original Source: networthmasters.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 20:40

CNBC: U.S. May Back $600 Billion on Troubled Home Loans

Some may say “well they finally got around to addressing the mortgages themselves” but lost in the summer and fall of bailouts - people are forgetting the U.S. already committed $300 Billion to a home owner bailout this summer. It was supposed to help 400,000 people - you never really hear about that program anymore - I wonder where that $300 billion disappeared to. I tried to search on the blog via term ‘bailout’ to find the post that explained this summer’s program but too many entries were returned; if that is not a sign of the times I don’t know what is….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 15:46

Bookkeeping: Taking some Luminex (LMNX) Profits

The casino action continues - I added to Luminex (LMNX) Monday in the mid $14s. It fell yesterday to the mid $12s. Today its north of $17. Nonsense - all of it. I’m cutting my 1.9% stake down to 0.4% while watching in shock and awe at the moves out there. Tomorrow it could be up 20% or down 20%. Depends if the marble goes into a red slot or black….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:41

Ultrashort Emerging Markets (EEV) Should Come with a Warning Handle

Ultrashort Emerging Markets (EEV) should have a warning label on it; we were “fortunate” to have a 0.1% stake in it yesterday but going back to yesterday’s discussion about how asset allocation is everything - just having this hedge on yesterday alone can cost you nearly 40%. I routinely carry this as a 3-4% stake. You can see it’s doubled earlier this month in under 2 weeks, than in the past few sessions nearly been halved. Yowsers….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:30

Apple (AAPL) Surging on Talk of Share Buyback

Some interesting comments on the blog of late debating the merits of buying stocks with dividends versus not. I don’t have a problem buying stocks without dividends since many stocks I focus on are relatively young and in high growth states. In markets like this they are punished since the growth is questioned; but if they have “must have” products or in highly defensible niches that fear is usually very overblown. The other issue is many companies don’t like to issue dividends even if they can (see Microsoft for a long time) because it means they’ve turned from a growth stock to a value stock. So more important than actually spitting off dividends is the ABILITY to spit off dividends (i.e. high cash on balance sheet and positive cash flow)….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:05

Inside the House of Money: S. Drobny

Steven Drobny talks about recent investment trends, introduces readers to global marco investing and interviews some of the most interesting people in this field.
Don’t let the subtitle “Top Hedge Fund Traders on Profiting in the Global Markets” …
Original Source: ei-forum.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 10:00

Jim Rogers on Bloomberg

More Jim Rogers - more sense. 10 minute video. Still bullish on agriculture. Still bullish on gold. More comparisons of US to Japan. Warning of massive inflation coming down the pike…[Aug 22: Checking in with Jim Rogers Part II][Aug 21: Checking in with Jim Rogers Part I]…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:39

Atlas Pipeline continues dividend: stock falls

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL: 16.07 -2.98 -15.64%) has declared a 3rd quarter dividend of 96¢, matching the 2nd quarter payout. In the two trading days since the announcement the share price has dropped almost 15%. This has me quite confused. I would understand if the market was pricing the stock at a 7% yield and the price falls because the dividend did not increase, but at $19 APL is yielding …
Original Source: timplaehn.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:10

Mark Cuban: Is this the New Normal?

Mark Cuban is known by most as a very rich guy who owns the Dallas Mavericks. He actually had the timing of a lifetime as he sold a company called Broadcast.com at the height of the internet boom to Y…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:09

Manitowoc (MTW) - Cranes are an Endangered Species

There used to be a joke way back… well this summer - what was the most common bird in the Middle East? The Crane. This was due to the construction boom happening [J…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:05

Bookkeeping: Closing ShengdaTech (SDTH)

I’m closing Chinese small cap ShengdaTech (SDTH); I was going to type “it’s the wrong stock for this type of market” but then I realized there is no right stock for this market. But in a market devoid of risk taking I see now 20,30,40 interesting Chinese small cap names that languish and no one will touch them. I expect at some point in the next 6 months when animal spirits return to this market for a few weeks many of these Chinese small caps will double within days from such extreme levels of valuation, but just not for me at this point to watch the stock look like a cadaver. I can’t even use valuation as an excuse to justify this one because at 7x 2008 earnings for 30-40% type of growth, it is now more expensive than half the stocks we own and another 100 or so on my watch lists. I can now buy mid caps for half that valuation with much larger market caps that mutual funds will feel safe buying when the market acts half rationally; these small caps are dominated by retail investors and hedge funds - neither of which seems to have any conviction in buying. As I’ve said before it really does not matter the valuation if there is no one to buy it….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:37

Financial Planning 101

Some humor in these difficult times…

       …
Original Source: ei-forum.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:29

Bookkeeping: Cutting the 3 Commodity Positions

As has been the pattern for months now, it is student body left or student body right. Today it was student body into commodities so I’m going to sell into the lift this morning. Obviously the underlying business of these companies changed by 30% within 36 hours…. not. But these are essentially penny stocks now - trading in 30% ranges every week. Since the market does not discern among individual companies this is to me one position - JamesRiverPotashMosaic - going into today it made up about 12% of the portfolio and I’m reducing this to about 6%….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:25

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) - Prime Rebound Candidate

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) was one of the few successful IPO’s over the past 12 months.  After pricing at $8.50 on December 6th, the stock closed more than 10% above its offering price.  But the gain was small change considering the stock ran 306% in just over 6 months.
As commodities and agriculture came into focus, […]
..
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/Zachstocks

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 5:35

Time for a Rally to the 50 Day Moving Average of 1130?

On Tuesday, October 28, 2008 the S&P 500 had a very good day, going up 10.79% from an open of 848.92 to close at 940.51.

In a previous blog, we also speculated the S&P would re-test the previous lows.

On October 17, it appears as if we hit an intra-day low which is almost as low as the low on October 10. If we look at the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, the SPY did successfully rest the low on…
Original Source: techfarm.blogspot.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:04

Flowserve (FLS): Impressive Again

Despite owning very few names, I continue to keep up with many companies monitoring their results, cash levels, commentary on order flow and if the “death of the entire globe” story is a bit overdone. It’s a moot point talking about commodities or financials as they spin in their own universes but a company like Flowserve (FLS) which has been thrown into the “global growth” garbage pail is one name I am interested in for multiple reasons. (note: unrelenting bitter sarcasm ahead)…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:00

Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Still Buying At This Price

Linked here is a PDF copy of my detailed analysis of J…
Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:30

Why I think we need Obama as president

Touchy subject, I know, but I will state my opinion because after all, that is what a blog is for isn’t it? I will only be talking about the financial aspect in this post and will obviously not get into social rights, etc.
Generally, conservative right wing movements (Republicans) are seen to have more favourable policies […]…
Original Source: www.intelligentspeculator.net

  29 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:00

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