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An Economix post today by David Leonhardt compares, with a twist, the market’s current p…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/financial-gauges

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 19:37

Five for the Weekend #10

Looks like a panic, folks. So I guess the Panic of 2008 will be listed with those of 1907, 1893 and so on. This is NOT a time to sell. That is, if you’ve been sensible. I saw that Jim Cramer said to sell all stocks if you’ll need the money in the next five years. I think you shouldn’t have ANY money in stocks that you’ve been planning on using within that time frame. And I’ve posted that here several times since starting this blog in 2005. With that, lets bring on five items you might check out this weekend….
Original Source: www.controlledgreed.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 15:15

Bookkeeping: Starting Ultra Russell 2000 (UWM) as New Position

This is the opposite of our friend from inception Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM)It is double long the Russell 2000 - instead of jumping back into 25 stocks in scale it will be easier to just use this instrument for trading purposes as I sip on my Kool Aid and tell you, that was the intermediate bottom.We have a 6.0% stake. Now we need to see fear turn to greed - at least for a week. ;)LIBOR overnight rates plunged today but no one cared - I think it might matter more Monday…. we shall see - if wrong it will be easy to get out of. Just like the Ultrashorts I won’t post every trade on this one but since this is a brand new position and we’ll use it as a hedge (except on the long side) I am posting the initial buy (in $24.80s)…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:45

Just Do It - You Know You want To - Buy Stocks!

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Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:29

Bill Ackman on Wachovia, Shorting, and More

One of the highlights of this year’s Value Investing Congress was Bill Ackman’s presentation on Monday, October 6, 2008. The focus of his presentation was on his recent long position in Wachovia (WB).
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Original Source: www.fatpitchfinancials.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:18

In a Market Like This You want to Own Something Safe and Boring like a Generic Drug Stock

We once owned Mylan (MYL) - it was safe…boring… someplace to hide out in case the market his further turbuluence. What could be safer than generic drugs? We c…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:03

Now People Are Worried about Retail Stocks?

Gotta tell you (and long time readers can attest) we were very frustrated throughout the 1st half of the year as we were screamed at by pundits about the “2nd half 2008 recovery” - I think at least 5x a week for months on end I used that line along with the term “Kool Aid thinking”during late winter and spring. After that thesis proved to fail, the Kool Aid pundits turned to “as gas drops 50 cents the consumer will be back” - hedge funds ran into retail stocks to run them up on “that thesis” - I said that one will be proven to be wrong but we looked foolish those weeks/months as we held none of the stocks that people were running into on false pretenses. Remember, in the stock market - perception is reality. It does not matter if reality is wrong as long as enough people believe it….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:00

Today’s Line in the Sand: S&P 840

Every day in this brutal market there is some technical line in the sand that gets completely blown up. Technicals in crashes are showing to be quite useless. I remember thinking way back in the day (err, yesterday) that 960 was the line in the sand - once that broke I went from the 25% short exposure to 40%. Today’s line in the sand is S&P (gulp) 840. This is the opening low and we just retested it an hour or so ago. So if technicals mean anything it’s either a potential intraday double bottom or meaningless noise as we approach “Redemption Hour” aka 3 PM. …
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:38

What are Walmart (WMT) and McDonalds (MCD) Telling Us?

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Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 10:05

Bookkeeping: Restarting 3 Positions

I’m restarting 3 previous positionsApple (AAPL) - bought a 3.9% stake in the $93-$94sMastercard (MA) - bought a 1.8% stake in the $152sCME Group (CME) - bought a 3.3% stake in the $360sThe former 2 of the 3 above were major hedge fund holdings and have been liquidated relentlessly. I don’t know if the hedge funds are done but frankly this drop has been so severe it is going to mean the redemptions are going to happen in a short duration of time - I earlier thought it might drag out all the way until December 31st when hedge funds CHOSE to close up shop since they won’t be able to make their performance fees in 2009; but instead many will be FORCED to close up shop much earlier. Or be much much smaller. …
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:05

Bookkeeping: !!!!!

I’m dumping a ton of short exposure and buying a lot of long exposureThe key is 3-4PMwe need to see those redemptions stopping - otherwise a tough Monday
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Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:49

European Markets

Here is an overview of the European markets before we open here in the US:

Again, not a pretty picture….
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Original Source: ei-forum.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:21

Potter Isn’t Buying. He Can’t.

Don’t you see what’s happening? Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not.—Jimmy Stewart as George Bailey, It’s a Wonderful LifeThe last two weeks have seen near endless speculation on when, precisely, the bottom of this crash will have been seen—so that investors can start to buy.Gray-hairs who’ve actually been through real crashes—1987, for example—understand that so long as television talking heads are still asking if it is time to buy, then whatever we’ve been through that day didn’t amount to a seller-clearing, bottom-creating panic….
Original Source: jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 5:32

Is It Time to Bet Against Excessive Pessimism?

Ian Cowie writes that he agrees with Anthony Bolton that it is. His Spectator column stresses that jumping in and out of the market means you could miss the turning point — where gains are made in a short period of time.That sounds like cold comfort to many investors in this climate:None of which will impress the fearful who are fleeing into cash or
bonds right now. They will dismiss all of the above as statistical
sophistry; which is fine by Anthony Bolton — and me. He explains: ‘For
the first time in a couple of years, I have started to feel more
optimistic in recent weeks and there have been signs of a market low in
recent days. There has been evidence of final capitulation, with people
talking about looking into the abyss and how the whole system could
collapse. I have applied the same analysis for 30 years to identify
periods of excessive optimism or excessive pessimism and — whether it
was 9/11 or when Kuwait got invaded — invested by betting against them.’…
Original Source: www.controlledgreed.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:57

Las Vegas home sales up 280%.

ReviewJournal.com - Business - HOUSING SECTOR: Economic woes hit home.
My title is about a accurate as the one from the LV Review Journal linked above. Existing single family home sales for September in Las Vegas were 2,783, which is a 280% increase from the 990 sold in September 2007. The economic woe is that average prices continue to fall. I would like to compares some pros and cons concerning the Las Vegas housing results for September.
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Original Source: timplaehn.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:08

Have We Capitulated Yet in the Stock Market? We may break Records. Stock Chart Included.

The US Stock Market as represented by the S&P 500 index went down 78.5 points to 909.92 for a loss of about 7.9%.

We Are Near Record Levels

By almost any metric, we are extremely oversold and near historic levels.

Even before today’s big drop, by many technical (related to looking at charts, and price and volume movements and other patterns) standards, we were in extreme oversold conditions….
Original Source: techfarm.blogspot.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:45

Weekly Links: Carnivals & Articles - October 10, 2008

Each Friday I highlight the Carnivals I participated in over the past week, along with any notable articles that I came across. For those readers not familiar with carnivals, it’s where personal finance bloggers submit their best articles of the week with one blog serving as the host. The entries are separated into various categories such as Investing, Credit, Debt, Budgeting, Frugality, Wealth Building, Money Management, Financial Planning, Insurance, Taxes, The Economy, Real Estate, et. al….
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/Dividends4life

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:30

Fundamentals mean nothing

The global stock market sell off has fear racing around the world from market to market. Fundamental analysis of stocks means nothing as “investors” dump everything they own. I am curious on a couple of points. What is driving the continued selling of stocks by the institutions: Is is margin calls to hedge funds or is it that even “professional” money managers cannot control their fear. Also, I r…
Original Source: timplaehn.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:21

What about the others?

We have been so focused on troubles in the US and more recently, in Europe that most people have completely forgotten about the rest of the world. Naturally, the US is impacting everyone else and other markets are principally responding to the moves on wall street but we thought that our readers might like to have the following overview.
In the following graph, we compare the latest 3 month performance for the US total Market (using the Vanguard VTI) against the Russian market ETF (R…
Original Source: ei-forum.com

10 October, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 2:58

Thought of the Day…

We are not trying to be negative or pushing for panic… things will sort themselves out. However, this caption highlights the mood on the street.