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COP: Financial Analysis through June 2008

We have analyzed ConocoPhillips’s preliminary financial results for the second quarter of 2008, which ended on 30 June. The report included a plethora of data about Conoco’s businesses, but it did not include a current B…
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 20:58

WhyTuesday.org

Great website that explores why the United States voter turnout is so low and what we can do to change it. They have some great interviews with almost every presidential candidate. Check out the site here to see more…….
Original Source: marketanomalies.blogspot.com

24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 19:32

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - the Bear Gets Them All Eventually

I’ve been negative on restaurant stocks since the beginning of the blog for reasons that are very apparent now but not back then in the “economy is fine, and inflation is a ridiculous concept” era. [Sept 19 - Tough Times Ahead for Restaurants?]Middle class consumer squeezed along with skyrocketing inputs for their food doesn’t bode well for profit margins in this group as a whole. We have the cheese inflation, the dairy inflation, the corn inflation and now the wheat inflation….
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 13:45

Bookkeeping: Cash America (CSH) and EZCORP (EZPW) Both Report Today - Starting Small Stake in EZCORP

I am looking for names hedge funds don’t own much of So their actions won’t ruin our portfolio, errr.. won’t ruin our portfolio FURTHER. I think the pawn shops/cash advance areas, aside from being counter cyclical, will fit that bill. Main risks here are legislative, or the economy returns to boom time. Meaning the only risk is legislative We’ve discussed these names of late - and both that I am targeting report today. Cash America (…
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:32

Bookkeeping: Closing Vale (RIO)

Love Vale (RIO).Love to stay in business more.Perhaps this is capitulation on my part.I still like the name here at a potential double bottom with March 2008 lows in the $28 range, and in fact doubled the stake last week on this thesis but that was before the next leg down of the commodity sell off. I can only assume V…
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 10:04

Existing-home sales fall to 10-year low - How do they know?

Many foreclosures aren’t included in the data at all because they are not sold through the Realtors’ multiple-listing service.
Existing-home sales fall 2.6% to 10-year low - MarketWatch.
If up to 60% of home sales in places like Sacramento and Las Vegas are foreclosures what good is the data from this report? Sacramento and Las Vegas are showing significant year-over-year sales gains.
…
Original Source: timplaehn.com

24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 10:02

Mortgage Rates Heading Near 7% -> Housing Rebound Imminent

I know that headline sounds like a joke, but this is what the pundits want you to believe. The banks are ok because housing is going to be fine, just let the government interfere a bit more and they can fix that problem as well. With their normal efficiency. Sorry - not going to happen - we have a long way to go, median prices need to fall a long way [What Should Median Home Prices be Today?]…
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:28

Bookkeeping: Cutting Back Gafisa (GFA) Sharply

I am continuing to raise cash in this brutal market.Gafisa (GFA) is another favorite but it’s chart is setting up a nice situation to take profits and buy back later on strength. It is trading in the mid $33s. You can see resistance all over the place in the mid $30s. So I’ll be happy to pay “up” (pay a higher price) once Gafisa clears those resistance levels (traders above the moving average) - from where I am selling today that is less than 5% higher. That is a small price to pay right now - if the stock pulls back to upper $20s we could also buy back there. But right now we are in no man’s land and with the stock jumping 20% from last week’s low point I am going to scurry off like a rat with my crumb….
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:33

Mechel (MTL) Down 20% on Putin’s Comments

We sold out of Mechel (MTL) completely yesterday in the $37.50s despite loving the theme/story. [Closing Mechel]It just hit $28s - as I wrote; the Russian government appeared to be a game changer which is a shame. Today some comments out by Putin….
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:16

Kinross Gold (KGC) Buys Aurelian Resources

For gosh sakes - I just want a darn hedge (gold) and I had to buy the one company that decides it’s going on an acquisition spree! It might be a fine deal in the long run but I bought this as a hedge (I know, I know buy Gold ETF next time) Down 5% this AM - I was wondering why this was the only gold stock in my watch list down this morning. When it rains it pours. Bah….
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:10

Bookkeeping: Cutting Baidu.com (BIDU) on Gap Up

After so much hemorrhaging the past week and a half I am going to take profits when offered and with Baidu.com (BIDU) up nearly 17% I am going to cut most of the position and wait for a pullback. If no pullback, that is fine - I am harvesting cash as I wait out this worst of breed rally. If you haven’t noticed this is not a buy and hold market… that said, stocks that have gapped up like this have a tendency to run, but in terms of portfolio management and desire to raise cash until I can figure out this “new paradigm” of selling stocks that beat earnings and buying stocks that miss, I am culling winners. Any market led by junk is not a market I trust….
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:59

Pickens Plan Profits: Global Wind ETF (FAN), Clean Fuels (CLNE), Fuel Systems (FSYS)

As many of you probably know, oil speculator extraordinaire T Boone Pickens has a plan, a plan to save the world from itself in the form of clean energy (well sorta, more on that later). Mr. Pickens, I applaud you for your efforts and for stepping up at a time when government agrees […]
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Original Source: selfinvestors.com

24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:19

Potash (POT) - The Beat Goes On

Nothing surprising in this morning’s earnings report - and frankly it does “not matter” right now because as we all know, potash = oil. At least in hedge fund’s eyes. The analysts finally seem to be somewhat catching up to the earnings potential, they only missed by 30 cents this time around after being wrong by a few miles for quarters on end [O…
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:13

GTLS: Chart Industries Off the Chart Performance

My latest column is up at RealMoney.
Chart Industries (GTLS) is a leading independent global manufacturer of highly engineered equipment used in the production, storage and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. As an infrastructure supplier to the energy industry, Chart lies at the intersection of two major investment themes that I think will continue to work for some time.
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:03

35 Stocks Financial Sector Mutual Funds are Mocking Us With

I usually post a “best of” list each week in terms of best returns. I thought it would be instructive to show the top 35 stocks (over $2 billion market cap) of the past week. The numbers are staggering… not just in the % return but I am including the market capitalization in the far left column. For those who are newer to the market, market capitalization is simply the # of shares X the stock price and it signifies “size”. The scale below is billions so 13.2 = 13.2 Billion. When you cross reference the percentage moves against the market caps you can see you many “billions” have been created on paper in the last 5-6 days. Again, we’ve seen this action before, and you just have to shake your head when stodgy financials trade like small cap Chinese stocks or dot coms from the late 90s, falling 60%… popping 50%. $100 Billion market cap companies at that. Obviously it represents a …
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:00

Yield Of Dreams!

“If you pay it, they will come”
This is the motto of the yield chaser. The yield chaser comes in many forms and some readers have even suggested that I am a yield chaser. Are they correct? I am not sure, but I do like to find great stocks that pay a solid and increasing dividend over time.
Yield Chasers
There are others who define ”yield chasers” as those who buy the riskiest of dividend paying stocks. These riskier dividend plays typically will pay a dividend yield in the double digits! That sounds great so far, but these huge dividends usually don’t last. Some of these companies actually pay out more money in dividends than they have earnings!
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Original Source: dividendmoney.com

24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:00

Profit from CO2

One of the mega trends that all investors should be looking at is CO2 reduction. How this will develop and how to profit from this is not a very easy call as this is a very complex issue and moreover, one which is highly impacted by legislation and enormous power/interest struggles.
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Original Source: ei-forum.com

24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:48

Dividend Stocks In the News: July 24, 2008

With Bank of America’s (BAC) big announcement this week, there appears to be life after financial crisis. Will it last? Who knows. If you are a dividend investor, it doesn’t matter. If the market goes up, you can enjoy your paper-profits on recent purchases. If it goes down, it provides more opportunities to pick up some value-priced bargains. Below are several companies that increased their dividends last week:…
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24 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:30

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