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A Reminder That Time May Lag, Yet Value Ultimately Wins Out

Something I forgot to mention in my previous post about Tim McElvaine is him quoting Chris Davis’ grandfather, founder of the Davis Select Funds:”You make most of your money during a bear market; you just don’t realize it at the time.”That should certainly strike a chord in you and me. As McElvaine says in the same June 30 letter to partners, “we make our money on the purchase.” I’ve heard real estate investors say something similar — “I make my money on the purchase, not the sale.”…
Original Source: www.controlledgreed.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 21:22

Investment? Look for Clubs

In the past 10 years, one of the surprising developments in stock is the wildfire spread of investments throughout the nation. According to the survey New York Stock Exchange, it reveals that there are at least 20,000 existing clubs with a total membership of more than 277,000 people. At the phenomenal rate, there are even more forming every day! And this is even more exciting!
The club members regularly meet, contribute funds equally, and study investments carefully. They agree jointly on the shares that needs purchasing or selling. But first, the unique procedure is a responsibility of the group so the members can learn the complexities. Lastly, they can acquire the stock with individual contributions by aggregating funds. …
Original Source: networthmasters.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 20:57

Baidu.com (BIDU), Amazon.com (AMZN) - Party Like its 1999?

Mmmm… two “dot coms” doing well in 1 evening, I just had a flashback to another century. I just have to ignore the valuations in both (another flashback to the late 90s) as they keep on producing.Baidu.com (BIDU) first since we own it (we cut back going into earnings) - this name trades at a multiple of… err.. nevermind that.Baidu.com Inc (BIDU),…
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 16:00

Another Sign of Banks Bottoming? Wachovia (WB) CEO Insider Buying

When I'm looking for signals of a bottom in any sector, first and foremost will be the technicals, followed by rallies on bad news. Long before companies get back on track financially, their stock charts will have already had a big run as most of the bad news was built in. As a distant […]
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Original Source: selfinvestors.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 15:39

Poll of the Month - What Will You do on the Next Commodities Bounce?

New Poll up on the website - email subscription readers please join in and respond…There will come another time when commodities will act like a strong sector again, like say (ahem) financials… how will you respond?Q: One day, Commodities will Reverse and Bounce - What Will You Do? (3-6 month time frame)A #1: I’m a buyer into the bounce - the reversal will signal a bottom; what a steal to buy at these prices…
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 13:37

Peabody Energy (BTU) Stellar Results - Who Cares

First, wow what a day. I feel like I suddenly own a fleet of financials for the past year. Very strange past 2 months - in June while the market was demolished we held up fine, and now the exact opposite is happening in July. I guess reversion to the mean still holds. I am checking the results over at CGM Focus (CGMFX) every day to see how Ken Heebner …
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 13:05

Experts Tell Congress What I’ve Been Telling Blog Readers for a Year

CNNMoney.com: U.S. Middle Class ‘On the Edge’ This article sounds vaguely familiar ;)I’m glad the ‘experts’ are catching on and telling the leadership what it is really like for those not in the upper 3rd of the country. [Dec 8: Do the Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a Chance?…
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:04

Bookkeeping: Cutting Goldman Sachs (GS) Exposure

I have no idea what that was this morning, but it “felt” like a major hedge fund either being blown up or at the least being cornered and needing to puke up incorrect positions - everything financial was squeezed up, and everything commodities imploded. Almost 1 for 1. Just unbelievable action and really what does it say about our system when our major banks are moving 30% a day, and 100% in a week.Anyhow, I said yesterday I wanted to see that …
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:30

A-Power Energy (APWR) Signs $300M Contract with Thailand

I continue to believe this is an undiscovered gem, and despite the harrowing daily stock action I buy every dip, as I did yesterday. Another great long term contract announced today; essentially 3.5 years and $300M. Considering they only are slated to do $400M in revenue for all of 2008, that’s a very nice frosting on the cake….
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:00

Real estate investment

There are several ways to multiply your savings by growing your dividends from different businesses. Among the highest profit earner is Real estate investing, which has been around for thousands of years. Though the rules are different than the stock market, real estate investing promises success when done correctly. Hence, you should first ask yoursrl, is real estate investing right for you? You must foresee if in the end, such business will just frustrate you.
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Original Source: networthmasters.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:43

Foreclosures still rising in California

Over the last few months I have been writing articles on the improving housing market in the Sacramento region, with a little Las Vegas thrown in. I write on these areas because I am familiar with the markets and these were some of the leaders of the recent boom and bust. Over the last 3 months these markets have shown growth in numbers of home sales in both year-over-year and month-to-month, though at significantly lower median prices than a year ago. Today’s data show the other side of the equation, foreclosures, have not turned the corner yet.
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Original Source: timplaehn.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:41

VMware, Inc. (VMW) - Worst News Is In

After being bearish on VMware, Inc. (VMW) for quite some time now, it is interesting to see the stock off sharply this morning following the earnings release. The company reported revenues of $456 million compared to consensus expectations of $458.6 million. The non-GAAP earnings were directly in line with consensus at 23 cents for the […]
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:03

Bookkeeping: Closing Mechel (MTL)

There is a lot of drama going on at Mechel (MTL) right now, and I don’t like drama. On top of my findings from this weekend [Mechel Profits Appear to Be Coming Under Scrutiny] was yesterday’s news that (without an analyst report to read over) in my eyes looked like M…
Original Source:

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:58

Bookkeeping: Closing Sterlite Industries (SLT) & DryShips (DRYS)

I am closing the last Indian position out with the sale of miner Sterlite Industries (SLT) - much like the sales of the Indian banks last week (which immediately went up because they are “financials”) I think this will be a “poor” decision over a 5 year time horizon but over the next 6 months, I have no conviction. In a broader portfolio sense I have absolutely no feel what this market wants to do - it simply seems like a market beholden to financial writeoffs versus oil prices and almost nothing else matters. It is very difficult to position a portfolio for anything longer than daytrades in this market so I am going to raise some cash, and once some trends fall into place that last longer than a week, we’ll redeploy. This is not a market that plays into my strengths and short of turning the portfolio over 100% every 6-7 days it’s not an environment for investors; only very short term traders. So more cash for now and all about time horizon. I am willing to let go merchandise I like for the 3-5 year time frame because the 3-5 week or 3-5 month time frame is completely vague….
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:45

Costco (COST) Warning & McDonalds (MCD) Continuing to be Dinner of Choice for Pooring Americans

Now that’s a bit of a shocker - this was one of the “safe” havens in retail. But that’s ok folks because past results are backwards looking and one must “look ahead” - and as we look forward to an era of $3.40 gas the consumer will be back, stronger than ever. ;)Costco Wholesale Corp. said Wednesday fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year profit will miss Wall Street expectations, as the warehouse club operator e…
Original Source:

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:40

Investing Misconception…

We missed our Monday investing humor post so here it is:

Enjoy!
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Original Source: ei-forum.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:27

American Express (AXP) Weakening

This week’s earning report from American Express (AXP) quite frankly substantiates much of what we’ve been warning about for a long time. It is just taking longer to hit the “upper middle/lower upper” class. [Jan 10: Credit Card Warnings Here, Credit Card Warnings There]…
Original Source:

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:20

Healthcare Companies that Start with the Letter "I" Outperform

Last night was a good one for health care companies whose name start with the letter ‘I’. Both remain very ‘rich’ in valuation but a quick review of eachIllumina (ILMN)Genetic analysis company Illumina Inc. said Tuesday its second-quarter profit rose 66 percent on a surge in product sales, prompting the company to boost its third-quarter and full-year outlooks….
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23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:00

How We Know Oil is Going Down

After carefully reviewing the current status of supply and demand for crude oil, thoughtful minds might reasonably conclude that the price of crude oil has peaked.For starters, airlines are going bankrupt left and right, and the level of route reductions the industry is taking in response to the crisis is even larger than what they did following 9/11.So we know jet fuel demand is headed down….
Original Source: jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 5:21

What is “Shareholder Yield”?

Shareholder Yield isn’t a new concept to the retail investor, but it has been spotted the news recently.
But what exactly is Shareholder Yield?
William W. Priest, of Epoch Investment Partners, defines shareholder yield as a combination of the following:

Dividend Payouts
Debt Reduction
Stock Repurchase Programs

It has been documented that dividend payouts are at very low levels, some say as much as thirty years have gone by since dividend payouts were at such low levels. Some companies are letting cash reserves grow to cumbersome levels and are being pressured by shareholders to put that cash to work!
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Original Source: dividendmoney.com

23 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:00

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