How to call a bottom?

As the markets head south, anxiety levels are rushing northwards.
Not without reason, the erstwhile supports expected at the 4365 (minor support) and 3960 (intermediate support) stand conclusively violated.
The despondency levels in the markets are hitting new highs as the headline indices plumb to new year 2008 lows.
But before you write off equities just yet, consider […]…
Original Source: www.valuestockplus.net

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 23:06

INTC: Financial Analysis through June 2008

We have analyzed Intel’s preliminary financial results for the second quarter, which ended on 28 June 2008. Intel Corporation (I…
Original Source:

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 22:13

General Motors Round Up

I’ve been swamped with non-blogging duties all day. And am just now, after midnight here on the US east coast, able to come up for air (when I should be going to bed).Anyway, while the big news today was the state of the American (and global) financial system, the big news around these parts surely included General Motors (GM/NYSE). Which is suspending its dividend. You might recall it previously cut the dividend in half, but it remained a nice payout….
Original Source: www.controlledgreed.com

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 21:30

Jim Bunning Joins my Hall of Congressional Heroes

I believe that doubles my Hall of Heroes (Ron Paul & Bunning). Mish over on his blog posted the prepared statement from Jim Bunning (R-Kentucky), that I must reprint in their entirety. 2 Congress people down, another 400 odd lot to go. I don’t know Bunning’s history so maybe there is some ulterior reason and/or he was asleep at the wheel and looked past the same things himself, but at least said some things publicly that most won’t - so for that I have to give credit and with the Hall of Congressional Heroes almost completely empty, there is a very low bar to enter. ;)…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 18:00

A Look at the 3G iPhone’s Profitability

Apple’s 3G iPhone appears to be quite profitable. The fully subsidized price from AT&T is $199/$299 for the 8GB/16GB models, respectively- requiring a 2-year contract. If a current AT&T customer has recently purchased a discounted phone, then the price may increase up to $399/$499, depending how much subsidy AT&T needs to recover on the old phone. Without a 2-year contract from AT&T, the iPhone will cost $599/699. The actual amount Apple receives per iPhone is uncertain. Wall Street analysts estimate AT&T is paying a $300-$350 subsidy. The AT&T pricing scheme suggests the subsidy may be as high as $400 per unit. …
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 16:42

Bill Ackman Offers a Solution to the Fannie/Freddie Mess

This is the problem with our system - the truly greatest minds are going to areas where they can of course derive the greatest wealth. And the best glad handlers go to Washington D.C. and are way over their head with situations such as this - now today (once again, America the reactive) we are hearing about solutions from D.C.. Thankfully Mr Ackman was kind enough to share his plan for a grand fix of Fannie/Freddie …
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 13:30

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: In Monday’s video roundup “Best Trades Now: Financials, Medical Suppliers & More” which one is a 10-day earnings reactor?

In Monday’s video roundup “Best Trades Now: Financials, Medical Suppliers & More” which one is a 10-day earnings reactor?
“They’re [Harley Davidson (HOG)] what we consider a ten-day earnings reactor, meaning within ten days we’re going to see the most price movement for this company…
S…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:04

The Best Way to Make Money: Short Term or Long Term Trading?

Ask investors which stock investment is better, long term or short term, and many of them would probably answer long term. However, despite the appealing advantages of long term trading, considering short term trading is still a good option. The best decision though on which investment to take depends on the person making the investment. Because each person is unique, investment would depend on his personality and risk profile. …
Original Source: networthmasters.com

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:45

Bookkeeping: Transactions

Since we’ve cut back our cash to nil since late last week, and I don’t want to lighten my short exposure at this point (unless this is “the” bounce), I’m doing some redistribution. Along with this morning’s sale of Core Laboratories (CLB), I’ve sold 100 of 125 shares of DryShips (DRYS), as it flat lines here in no man’s land. I’d like to be a buyer of this name north of resistance (low $80s) or on a return trip to $60s (current $76). Frankly if not for the (future) deep sea rig business DRYS has I’d probably just close this position out and focus on the items the shippers are transporting rather than the shippers themselves. That has generally served us well. And probably I’m “way too early” to give D…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:04

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: Picks & Pans: In “Options Bubble on Financial Trouble,” whose “implied volatility” shot up 101% Monday?

Picks & Pans: In “Options Bubble on Financial Trouble,” whose “implied volatility” shot up 101% Monday?
“Keep an eye on Washington Mutual,” sha said. “When I spoke to your producers at about 10:30 a.m. this morning, its implied volatility was up 37 percent. When I left the office to come to the studio here, it was up 101 percent, and again we saw traders selling volatility in the front month.”…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 11:02

Sacramento June real estate sales continue positive trend

Sales of homes in the Sacramento region extended their year-over-year (YoY) gains to a 3rd straight month in June. It appears April was the start of a pretty strong turn around for the region. I wrote about the April results here and the May results here. Today results w…
Original Source: timplaehn.com

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 10:13

Do You Trust this Reversal?

This is about the 5th significant reversal on the way down during this month and a half correction. In the old days these reversals used to be bought because you could trust them. Dramatic drops, followed by indiscriminate selling, followed by a bounce - that’s a screaming buy in the old (non socialized) market. Now, you just wonder whose hand is doing the buying. Each reversal previous to this has failed and slaughtered bulls playing by the old handbook in the process….
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:42

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: On Monday, Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC that the fair value of the S&P 500 is:

On Monday, Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC that the fair value of the S&P 500 is:
Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs’ senior investment strategist, told CNBC Monday that the fair value of the S&P 500 is at 1,400 — nearly 200 higher than its level at the time of this writing — based on a 6 month to 12 month view.
…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:05

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: Web Video Hunt: In Monday’s CNBC.com video, “Commodities Explosion”, which precious-metals play was John Roque’s pick?

Web Video Hunt: In Monday’s CNBC.com video, “Commodities Explosion”, which precious-metals play was John Roque’s pick?
Goldcorp (GG)

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…
Original Source:

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:54

Might Have to Start Taking Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Seriously - Another Huge Contract

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) has the distinction of being one of the oldest publicly traded solar companies, and also the one that has been unable to turn a profit. This one has been around so long it was around near the end of the last bubble (NASDAQ) destruction. But perhaps like Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) - this “hope” stock has finally turned the corner. At the least I have to start taking it seriously. T…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:31

Why Buffett Is Buying

The Omaha investor is taking advantage of the market turmoil to fire up Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition machine. Yet a string of recent takeovers has done little to buttress the conglomerate’s flagging growth.
By Richard Teitelbaum
Warren Buffett is in Toronto, fielding questions from a crowd of 300 executives. One asks what makes people want to sell their […]…
Original Source: www.valuestockplus.net

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:13

Mosaic (MOS) Sells Nitrogen Plant to Yara International (YARIY) for $1.6 Billion

For long time readers of the blog you know the reasons we love fertilizer and especially the potash (high moat) and phosphate makers (quite high moat) the best. Mosaic (MOS) has been our top holding and winner for much of the life of the fund. [Top Fund Winners and Losers] We don’t like nitrogen quite as much simply because in due time anything China can produce, they will overproduce - and unlike potash and phosphates which have some extreme limitations on inputs/sources, nitrogen is more of a chemical process that China can (eventually) reproduce in great quantities - although input costs are rising there too. That is not to say that the greater trends that we like in all the fertilizer names won’t benefit the nitrogen makers as well - it is just a ‘relative’ game. We want the best boat(s) in the rising tide for the long run….
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:52

Warburg Pincus Takes 5%+ Stake in WuXi PharmaTech (WX)

One thing we want to look for today are pieces of green in a sea of red; aside from gold there is very little. One name poking it’s head above water is WuXi PharmaTech (WX) - which is a name I’ve been mentioning as showing some good relative strength of late. Before that the stock was in complete free fall as it appears word of some early investors (of scale) were looking to cash out. News out yesterday after the bell that W…
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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:22

Yahoo Prepares For Battle Against Icahn and Microsoft

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  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:20

That’s More Like It

Now this is the fear I said a few weeks ago we need - totally indiscreminite selling.I am using 2 proxies - Google (GOOG) and the S&P 500. When the former fills its gap (remember I said it was an excellent short in the $540s range) at $460, or the S&P 500 falls to 1170 we’ll deploy more to the long side. S&P 1200 will be a psychological level that should provide some interim support but it’s just one of those “round numbers” that doesn’t mean much in reality. I’m remaining patient so I have some cash to deploy once the turn really happens. We have about 14% short exposure (I added a bit on that nonsense spike yesterday morning)…
Original Source:

  15 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:09

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