Five for Friday (on Thursday Night)

With tomorrow the July 4h holiday for those of us in the US, this week’s Five for Friday gets bumped up to Thursday evening. Here are a few things to chew on over the next few days, in between the cookouts and fireworks.
These are tough times for value investors. And the only solace for many of us is the fact that many of the world’s best value pros have been doing poorly as well. Forbes is running an a…
Original Source: www.controlledgreed.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 17:05

Special Opportunities quarterly review

Yesterday I gave an overview of the results for the 2nd quarter of the Income Portfolio I track on this site. Today I will do the same for the Special Opportunities Portfolio. First a cut-and-paste of the caveats:
…
Original Source: timplaehn.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 12:38

Bookkeeping: ‘Rising Tide’ Performance Week 48

Week 48 performance of the mutual fundComments: The market continued to degrade this week, albeit at a slower pace than the previous 2 weeks of back to back 3% losses. Luckily the market closed early today because it felt in the last hour like a football team with a 1 point lead and we were just trying to run out of the clock before the bears made a comeback… in stock market parlance we were hoping the market would not fall back below S&P 1260 at the close and make a new low. We held… by inches. But a lot of individual names took a lot more pain, than what the indexes showed this week….
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 10:32

A Quick Word about the Unemployment Report

I don’t like to waste space talking about the fictitious monthly report because by the time I read through the details I am generally laughing too hard to make a cogent posting, and why recreate the wheel when Mish does a full blown analysis but I do want to point out some of the funnier things this month (by funny, I mean pathetic/sad)…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:36

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: According to the Fast Money Trade School article, “All Or Nothing Options”, who is expected to trade binaries?

According to the Fast Money Trade School article, “All Or Nothing Options”, who is expected to trade binaries?
The products are expected to attract a broad range of participants, including individual investors, hedge funds and institutions, who have an opinion, one way or another, on future price movements in the SPX or the VIX, said CBOE chairman and Chief Executive William Brodsky in a statement….
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 9:03

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: : In Darren Rovell’s post on Nike’s ?Air McFlys,? what Back to the Future “science” term did he quote?

: In Darren Rovell’s post on Nike’s ?Air McFlys,? what Back to the Future “science” term did he quote?
For someone who grew up in the mid-80’s quoting my best impression of George McFly (“No Biff, get your dirty hands off her!” and “Lorraine, you are my density. I mean, destiny.”), it was all about the f…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:48

Bookkeeping: Cutting Some Strong Positions to Raise Cash

Since we are running low on cash I am looking at a few names that have held up in this abyss (shuffling money from the strong to the weak), to help raise some cash. In a real mutual fund I would hope to open the mail and see a whole slew of new cash coming in as investors see this is a “great buying opportunity” to get shares of Rising Tide Growth on the cheap but since this is a closed system once I am low on cash I need to find more cash by selling something. Or if I got a slew of panic stricken calls saying get me out of this market I’d need some cash to send to you. So I’d rather have it on hand then be forced to sell something into a downturn….
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:30

"Invisible Hand" Video

Hah - thanks to a reader for sending this to me. I love the comment about “who actually executes these orders”. The answer is not surprising for blog readers - we just talked about them yesterday - it is their market, they just allow us peons into the sandbox. ;)(click on the small photo for a 3-4 minute video)…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 8:05

Bookkeeping: Trading Position in James River Coal (JRCC)

I am adding a new coal name here but unlike the others this one will (I think) only be a shorter term trade: James River Coal (JRCC) has dropped from $60 to $41 in 2 sessions, or about a 32% loss for people buying 2 days ago. This is a much more speculative smaller cap coal name unlike the type I hold in the fund for “investments”. It is unprofitable this year but should show a massive amount of profits next year as it is very u…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:35

1260 Broken on S&P 500

Could be the day we have the panic; current S&P 500 1253. Natural gas finally breaking down - Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG) finally working, etc. Generals being hammered everywhere. Good things to finally form a bottom. It will be ugly if this continues but the type of cleansing we have been waiting for…. have puke bags at the ready.Financials ARE holding up (relatively speaking) as are retailers in general - so this is classic repeat action of previous “rotation” corrections. So a swoosh does not necessarily need to happen for market as whole since we are smoking out all the “hiding place” sectors, one by one….
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 7:03

Bookkeeping: Buying into the Abyss

Some purchases this AMAlpha Natural Resources (ANR) at 50 day moving average $80s (down 7% today)Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS) at 50 day moving average $28s (down 12% today)Gafisa (GFA) all support broken - buying near January 2008 lows in $29s (down 5% today)Intrepid Potash (IPI) - chart too new to find clear support near $53 (down 9% today)…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:50

Not paying too much

In a lovely book “Investing the Templeton Way”, the author, Lauren C. Templeton writes on John Templeton’s value investing style.
“To tilt the probabilities of success in your favor, you should search for a stock priced exceptionally low relative to the earnings of a com­pany that has better than average long-term growth prospects and better than […]…
Original Source: www.valuestockplus.net

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:48

Bookkeeping: New Position in Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)

I am adding yet another name to the solar mix - Energy Conversion Devices (ENER). The stock has now dropped from $83s to $59s in 2 weeks or about 30%. I deemed it too expensive (it is still expensive but it is all relative) at that point [Jun 17: Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) Now Trades on Par with First Solar (FSLR)] so we’ll start here with a beginner stake and see if we can get lower prices. If not, at least we have a toehold - this is our 5th solar name in our solar basket and enough for me in terms of “number of names”. I’ll simply add or subtract exposure by buying or selling shares in the names we already own….
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:36

ConocoPhillips: Good COP, Better COP

My latest column is up at RealMoney.
With oil dictating everything in this market, I can’t understand why ConocoPhillips (COP) is trading at 7 times next year’s earnings.
It’s not like the earnings estimates are falling. 90 days ago, analysts expected the company to earn $10.43 a share this year and $10.59 next year. Today, the estimates are $12.41 and $13.44, respectively. The consensus five-year growth rate is just 1%, which would mean a drop back to $7.65 a share within five years. I just don’t see that happening, so there should be potential upside surprise to the growth estimates as well.
…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:21

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: According to “Warren Buffett Watch,” the bear market bit Berkshire Hathaway. What was its Tuesday closing price?

…
According to “Warren Buffett Watch,” the bear market bit Berkshire Hathaway. What was its Tuesday closing price?
Yesterday, Berkshire shares dipped into bear territory on an intraday basis, before recovering to close at $120,100

Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:16

Nvidia (NVDA) - Ouch

Nvidia (NVDA) is a name a few readers have nominated as we looked for some new names in the tech space - the stock was approaching a triple bottom in the $18s after starting the year in mid $30s (50% drop). However, last night after the bell we had some uninspiring news and the stock is down an additional 28% to near $13. And just like that someone can lose 2/3rds of their money in 7 months. But remember, “tech is safe” because it has no exposure to oil. This is a trecherous market - the indexes as bad as they are, are masking some of the carnage in individual names. [J…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 6:13

Yahoo Eyes Time Warner For Deal As Microsoft Revives Takeover Interest

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Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 5:24

CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia: On July 2, strategist John Carter told CNBC he sees the Dow below 10,000. Where did he suggest putting your money?

On July 2, strategist John Carter told CNBC he sees the Dow below 10,000. Where did he suggest putting your money?
When it comes to fighting a U.S. downturn, now is the time to relocate assets into gold and oil, preferably through an ETF tied to the direct price of the commodity, Carter said.
Disclosure: Author is long STREETTRACKS GOLD (GLD) at time of publication.
…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 4:12

More on Stock Investing

Stock investment is risky, because you will not know whether your money will double up or get eaten up. If you want some good advice in your financing and risk management, then Barclays Capital would be a good choice. They are an investment banking division that offers solutions to your financing needs. Do not worry because they have a distinctive business model so you can be sure that you are in good hands with them….
Original Source: networthmasters.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:35

Who is David Dodd and Why Should We Listen to Him

Smith & Wesson immediately means something to a person familiar with firearms. In much the same way, the phrase Graham and Dodd carries a lot of weight with value investors. David LeFevre Dodd, the lessor known of the two, was born in 1895. He was an educator and close colleague of Benjamin Graham at the Columbia Business School.The 1929 stock market crash almost wiped out Graham. The crash inspired Graham to search for a more conservative, safer way to invest. Graham agreed to teach with the stipulation that someone take notes. David Dodd a young instructor at Columbia volunteered to be that someone. Those notes served as the basis for the 1934 book S…
Original Source: feeds.feedburner.com

  3 Julio, 2008| Fundamental Analysis | Comments (0) @ 3:30

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