Russia: The Once and Future Crisis

Good Robert Skidelsky piece in today’s Financial Times exploring the rapid changes in Russia’s fortunes and outlook: The official view is that Russia is an outstandingly successful economy temporarily derailed by a financial shock of foreign origin. Its annual economic growth in real terms averaged 7 per cent in the years during which Vladimir Putin was president (2000-08), annual real wages rose by almost 15 per cent, the federal budget was continually in surplus. Mr Putin, now prime minister, was quick to blame America for the downturn. Before the crisis hit home Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, boasted in June that Russia was not part of the problem but part of the solution. Its cash-rich companies would invest abroad, Moscow would become a world financial centre, the rouble would become a reserve currency and so on. …
Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 23:55

Why the dollar surge won’t last

Paul Kedrosky, guest contributor, argues in a thoughtful manner that the US dollar’s surge won’t last. “Down is up, and up is down? How is it that a growing US economy was bad for the US dollar, but a potentially calamitous collapse in the same US economy has the US dollar up double-digit percentages?,” asks Kedrosky.

Please visit my website (by clicking on the heading above) for the full article, as well as other interesting investment snippets.
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Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:28

Stuff is cheaper? Time to panic

At least that is the message of this NYT article. The one saving grace of the current economic moment–downward pressure on prices due to declining productivity and the non-entry of new money into circulation–these people decide is the very core of the problem and a trend that must be smashed no mater what. We once marveled that the New Dealers could have been so confused as to believe that low prices were a problem that needed to be solved rather than the best part of the downturn. But here we have a “consensus”-style article that says exactly this. …
Original Source: blog.mises.org

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:03

The 28th Amendment

How large should a representative assembly be relative to its population? My idea is that it should be the pi root of the population. I figure that since the Greeks invented democracy, it should have some connection to the ancients.

Personally, I’d like to see this as a constitutional amendment (called the Elfenbein Amendment) that will formally determine the size of the U.S. House of Representatives, although I don’t believe it’s required. I think a simple law will do.
…
Original Source: www.crossingwallstreet.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:43

Time to Buy?

Individual investors will be getting their statements from October.  The news is not good.Most people react in the wrong way, looking backward rather than forward.  This is the main reason that the individual investor, attempting to time the market, gets about half of the average rate of stock market gains.Three FactoidsSometimes the picture can be captured in a snapshot.  Here are three facts to consider:…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/typepad

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:32

Voting During a Recession

This will be the first time Americans will be voting for president during a recession in 48 years. The National Bureau of Economic Research hasn’t officially declared this a recession, but I’m assuming they’re mark the beginning of this current recession as starting sometime in the second quarter. If I had to guess, I’d say May or June.

NBER has the dates of recessions going back to 1854 …
Original Source: www.crossingwallstreet.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 19:53

Links: Improbable Events, Decoupling, Takeovers, Pricing, etc.

Some quick links to some items of interest: Tough economic times are ahead, and they’re priced in (NTRS) The coming deflation scare (Morgan Stanley) States face two years of falling tax revenues (B…
Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 18:46

Health Care Free Lunch

(October 31, 2008 06:16 PM, by Arnold Kling) Brad DeLong and David Cutler promise one, on behalf of Barack Obama. As the reforms take hold, costs will drop. As costs drop, insurance will become more affordable. Millions previously priced out of the market will be able to buy……
Original Source: econlog.econlib.org

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 18:16

Margin Calls Hit Execs Left & Right (AIV, BSX, CPE, CHK, DNR, LTM, PROV, PHM, SPA, STRL, WSM)

There are many C-Suite executive from Wall Street to main Street that didn’t exactly get their stock priorities right.  Many company executives are getting margin calls and are being forced to liquidate their stocks.  Some are for stocks in their own company, some are for stocks and general, and some are just forced to sell to meet margin calls for entirely different reasons unrelated to their companies.  below is a partial list of margin call victims from this week:…
Original Source: www.247wallst.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 18:06

Fun political math

Will Sarah Palin be president?

ALEX TABARROK looks at prediction market contract prices and comes to a startling conclusion:Here's a frightening thought, today Sarah Palin may have a greater probability of becoming president than John McCain.  The betting markets are currently giving McCain about a 16% chance of winning.  If McCain wins then let's assume that all things considered Palin has a 40% chance of becoming president (either if McCain dies in office or as his successor).  If McCain loses many people suggest Palin could be a future Republican leader so let's put her chances of becoming president in that scenario at 12%.  Thus:Pr(Sarah Palin=President) = .16*.4 + .84*.12 = 16.48 > 16% = Pr(John McCain = President). That's still one chance in six. Spooky!…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/economist

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:41

Link exchange

The best of the rest of the economics web

TODAY's recommended economics writing:I like Russell Roberts. His fable, The Choice, is one of the classic texts used to explain the benefits of trade to beginning economics students. But we now have another Wall Street Journal column calling interventionists the true heirs of Herbert Hoover, and sadly, Mr Roberts' byline is attached:Back in March, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke and the experts assured us that Bear Stearns had to be propped up. If not, the whole system could come crashing down. It is crashing down anyway. Just as in the 1930s, there is no evidence that the policy makers have any understanding of what they are doing. They need to make way for the natural forces of repair.They need to let…
Original Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/economist

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:18

Bernanke Could Use a Clue

(October 31, 2008 04:54 PM, by Arnold Kling) Lots of big names at a Berkeley symposium on housing finance, including Ben Bernanke. Reportedly, Bernanke focused on the need to rework the government guarantee of mortgage securities. I really believe that is wrong. Moreover, he knows less about it……
Original Source: econlog.econlib.org

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:54

Gedankenexperiment: How Could This be Worse Than the Depression?

Provocative piece up earlier this week over on the (excellent) FT economists’ forum. Authored by Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute, the piece takes people to task for stubbornly insisting that the current crisis could not end up being worse the the Depression. While it very likely won’t end up being worse than the Depression, taking it as an article of faith is over-rigid thinking that helps no-one. Here are Aslund’s points with respect to where the “why it could be worse” risks lie. He is not saying it will be worse, just that the following represent some of the possible blind spots. …
Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:43

Four at Four: October Is Over, Finally.

Here’s the good news about October: It’s over. The dreadful results need no embellishment and do not deserve sugarcoating. The Dow industrials dropped by nearly 14% for the month, the worst-monthly performance for the average since August of 1998, and the fourth-worst month since 1950. The S&P 500’s decline ranks as its eighth-worst month since 1930. Investors small and large fled investments of every stripe, faced with red…
Original Source: feeds.wsjonline.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:15

Left versus Right: What’s the Big Deal?

(October 31, 2008 03:15 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Call me crazy, but I think that McCain and Obama are basically the same.  You might like to persuade me otherwise, but you’ve got to understand where I’m coming from.  First, when I classify people’s politics, I think in terms……
Original Source: econlog.econlib.org

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 15:15

Video-Game Makers Face Asteroids

Video-game earnings: Train Kept-a Rollin, or Rats in the Cellar? (Activision)

Recessions, by and large, do not change the motivations of teenagers. They’re still apt to be found whiling away hours in front of a video-game screen, and the steady stream of income that generates has helped videogame makers often weather economic headwinds better than other companies.
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Original Source: feeds.wsjonline.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 15:14

Write-Offs: 10.31.08

$$$ Bruce Wasserstein: looking GOOD. [Cityfile]

$$$ Awww, look who made up. [CNBC]

$$$ 55 Out Of Control traders [WSF]

$$$ Don’t forget to b…
Original Source: www.pheedo.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 15:10

Happy Halloween From 24/7 Wall St. (pic.)

HAPPY HALLOWEEN !!!!!

It is after 6:00 PM and it is now the weekend, so for the lighter side of Wall Street we wanted to wish you a Happy Halloween.  It is always important to be safe and responsible, but it’s important in these rough times to still have fun.

-the 24/7 Wall St. team…
Original Source: www.247wallst.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 15:06

Dow Goes Gunning for Top Weekly Spot

If the markets closed right now — with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 12.2%, 11.6% and 11.9% for the week –- the Dow would have nailed down the #7 spot all-time for weekly gains. And the higher spots? Five of the six were during the Depression. Matter of fact, only one other week in the historical top ten wasn’t during the Depression. …
Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 15:04

NBER Recession Watch Contest

When the National Bureau of Economic Research gets around the giving a start date to the current recession, what do you think that start date will be? You need to come up with a month and year. I’ll try to come up with a good prize, like maybe an NBER baseball cap. Post your guess below.
..
Original Source: feedproxy.google.com

  31 Octubre, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 14:51

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