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Good News For Sprint (S) And AT&T (T): Mobile Ads

More and more mobile phone users are open to seeing mobile ads, especially if they offset the cost have of their calling and data plans. Reuters writes that a study by Nielsen shows “almost a third of people who use data services such as text messaging or Web surfing are open to advertising if it lowers the overall bill.” Over the last 30 days, the study showed that 28% of US mobile phone users recall seeing an ad. That total hit 58 million people. As cell phone subscriber numbers grow more slowly due to saturation, US mobile operators like Sprint…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:52

In Other News, The Sky Is Blue

The latest bit of analysis out of Moody’s Investors Service today? They say falling residential real estate values and the weakening economy will cause the market for collateralized debt obligations to dry up this year. Gee, ya think?
The agency expects less activity in all types of CDOs, with the sharpest decrease in structured finance CDOs. I…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:49

Awesome/Terrible News

A building collapse at 124th and Park earlier this afternoon has caused suspensions on all three main lines of the Metro-North (Hudson, Harlem, New Haven), indefinitely. If you’re middle aged and commute to the city every day, this means you can have that gigantic can of Coors you usually guzzle en route to the nagging wife and kids in an actual bar, whilst hitting on the women of those younger fellows who reverse trek it M-F, and are currently stuck up in CT. If you fall into that latter category, our condolences—according to Lon Varney, Paul Tudor Jones has hideous morning breath.
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:36

The 52-Week Low Club (FNSR)(TRSA)(C)(S)

Fremont General (FMT) Fear of Chapter 11 grows. Falls to $.39 from 52-week high of $13.80. Verasun Energy (VSE) High commodity prices kill ethanol stocks. Down to $7.76 from 52-week high of $21.47. Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) Low travel, high fuel costs. Sells down to $10.59 from 52=week high of $27.20. McClatchy (MNI) Picture for newspapers gets worse by the month. Drops to $9 from 52-week high of $36.97. Citigroup (C) Concern that bank will need more money. Drops to $21.23 from 52-week high of $55.55. Sprint (S) Market still worried that competition is taking subscribers. Sells off to to…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:32

Fedspeak Highlights: Fisher on Inflation, Mishkin on Home Prices

Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says in a speech in London today that his growth forecast “is one of the more bearish” among his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. But he’s also one of the more hawkish Fed officials and devotes most of his remarks to the S…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:15

What Are You Doing Tomorrow?

Whatever it is, cancel it—the event of the year is taking place. At 3:30 p.m., cafeteria workers employed by Aramark at banks throughout the city (JP Morgan, Citi, etc) will call on client and owner Goldman Sachs to “spread the wealth” a little more evenly when it comes to divvying up bonuses, via freedom march from 1 Wall Street to 85 Broad and back. They want higher wages (current salary is $410/week), affordable health insurance, and for Lloyd Blankfein to take a second to think about what his life will be like when he’s forced to roll up his sleeves and grab an udder, after his assistant, sent down for a trough of those individual creamers from which to build a ziggurat daily, is told the dairy shoppe is closed. Organizer Bruce Raynor says he expects the demonstration—which a sandwich boarded special guest is expected to attend—will get Goldman to make change.

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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:12

Why Aren’t Blogs Like Mine Worth Anything?

I get emails all the time telling me that I’m #1 in this list of financial blogs, #3 in that one, and so on. My response is always the same: That’s nice, but I’d rather you bought me. But no-one does. Buy me, that is. Why not? There are oodles of reasons, not least of which is my traffic, while large among financial blogs, is vanishingly small compared to the big dogs in blog land, like Huffington Post, TechCrunch, etc. But even those folks aren’t being bought, which can seem baffling given their success, influence and growth. …
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:10

Bearish Enough Yet?

Market mavens (especially those looking for the right time to grab bargains) talk about how the best time to buy is when an abundance of bearishness emerges. If one is discussing the Wall Street guru roster, the market isn’t close.
Analysts at B…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:08

Taxing Sovereign Wealth Funds

Is US tax law accidentally favoring sovereign wealth funds, giving them an advantage over other investors? Law professor Victor Fleischer says that is exactly what is happening, and advises Congress to amend the tax-code to repeal the loophole that sovereign wealth funds are exploiting.

Fleischer gained attention last year when his paper about the tax treatment of private equity, titled Two and Twenty, caught the eye of Capitol Hill lawmakers and made carried-interest front page news. His latest research paper proposes that allowing sovereign wealth funds to remain exempt from taxes on the principal of sovereign immunity favors sovereign wealth funds over private foreign individuals and funds.
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:07

Ambac Decides Against Splitting: Litigation Risk Forces a Market-based Solution

This from today’s Financial Times:Ambac, the troubled bond insurer, has decided against splitting in two as it completes a $2bn-$3bn recapitalisation, insiders said.

Under
a recent proposal, Ambac, the second biggest bond insurer, or monoline,
would have split its operations into a triple-A-rated municipal bond
insurance business and a structured finance business with potentially
lower ratings. A lower rating on the structured part of its business
could have forced banks to reduce the value of guarantees on
collateralised debt obligations and on derivative trades.
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:07

Ambac Decides Against Splitting: Litigation Risk Forces a Market-based Solution

This from today’s Financial Times:Ambac, the troubled bond insurer, has decided against splitting in two as it completes a $2bn-$3bn recapitalisation, insiders said.

4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:07

Are (Most) Economists Out to Lunch?

I think it is high time that the pragmatists rule and the economists step aside. Now, certainly some economists are pragmatists, though they appear to be few and far between. Self-interested commentators abound, particularly among Wall Street and hedge fund denizens, who are itching for the Federal Reserve and Congress to bail them out (or to provide the means by which they can make the U.S. taxpayer, kind of like those opportunists around the S&L bailout two decades ago). And all too many economists are making the same pronouncements, encouraging the c…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:46

The Dow/Nasdaq Ratio Hits a 3-1/2 Year High

The Dow/Nasdaq ratio closed yesterday at 5.428, which just barely passed the peak from August 8, 2006. The ratio is now at its highest level in 3-1/2 years.

I should add that the ratio has been very steady over the past few years. Here’s a chart of the ratio going back to 1980:

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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:44

Chaos…

So Bernanke is asking banks to forgive portions of mortgages. Seriously .
So the market does it’s late end of day rally to stave off panic.
Maybe it works (doubt it). Maybe it frustrates the bears (doubt it). Maybe he’s just a putz running a chaotic situation and grasping at straws (yep).
So glad I am just enjoying the weather and using my time to learn and scour for longer-term opportunities.
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:23

Skype Causing Calling Minutes Decline between China/Taiwan?

Interesting data out on the first decline in recent history in "official" calling minutes between China and Taiwan. There were 282.2 million voice communication calls from China to Taiwan with a total use time of 784.8 million minutes in 2007, dropping by 21.37% and 10.41%, respectively, from 2006, according to statistics by Taiwan’s National Communications Commission (NCC). This is the first decrease since 1997 (NCC statistics began in 1996), according to industry sources. …
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:17

Safe havens against stagflation

The markets are currently dealing with any number of cross-currents. One need only look to the fixed income markets to see how fears of stagflation are playing out in real time. Investors in search of a safe haven against stagflation are rapidly running out of options.
First, yields on the five-year TIPS are now below zero! In short, investors desperate for a “safe” way to play higher inflation have bid the bonds to levels not previously seen. (via …
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:17

January’s Lows In Sight

Today’s decline in equities has put the January low on the S&P 500 — around 1270 — firmly in investor crosshairs, according to analysts.
Equities are suffering again today due to weakness in the financial stocks, chip makers and commodity-related stocks. The S&P 500 is down 1.2% today to 1315 of late, nearing its January 22 closing low of 1310.50, which is the low for the year….
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:13

Tech Talk: The Four Horsemen Go To Chile

Hard not to notice the carnage among the four horsemen of technology: Google, Amazon, Research in Motion, and Apple. Here is the latest "lossage" data from my friend Eric over at Barron’s: Apple fell $4.76, or 3.8%, to $120.26. Google fell $15.57, or 3.3%, to $455.61. …
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:11

Aussie Economic Growth Mildly Decelerates

But the consumption and investment numbers remain impressive….
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:00

Can Currency Moves Predict Commodity Prices?

If you want to know where commodity prices are going, you can dive down the rabbit hole of raw-materials supply and demand, trying to figure out everything from how the weather in Saskatchewan will affect wheat crops to what the surging Indian economy will do to demand for gold.
Or, you can just watch the currency market.
Movements in commodity-producing countries? currencies have ?remarkably robust power in predicting future global commodity prices,? according to a…
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4 March, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:00

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