Economy Blog

Everything about the economy in a single blog

Fake Alpha

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:09

The “future stability of the financial markets would be enhanced if other parts of the financial community followed a private-equity remuneration model,” Guy Hands wrote in a letter to his investors.
Hands steps into row over City bonuses [Daily Telegraph]
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Chinese Producer Prices Surge in January

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:00

Government cooling measures are inadequate and need to be developed further.…
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Update #3 Bangalore Airport Pictures

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:46

The Bangalore Air Cargo Club (BACC) and Bengaluru International Airport (BIAL) are fighting. Members of BACC are upset that BIAL is not being transparent about the infrastructure and functioning of the airport, in just a short month and a few days before opening. ?…
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GDP growth in Czech Republic for 2007.

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:00

GDP grew by 6,9% in last quarter of 2007. For the whole year 2007 change is 6,6% up. Numbers are above analyst estimations which varied between 6,3 - 6,5 %. Improvement was dragged by higher employment (on year to year basis 1,9 % more employed people). Big impact has public health insurance reform. Extraordinary stimulus came from health insurance groups due to higher expenses. This contributed for GDP increase by 0,5%.Leading industries were energy, manufacturing industry.h…
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Manhattan Real Estate Datapoint of the Day

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:48

Josh Barbanel reports:

So far this year, 13 co-ops worth $20 million or more had closed or were in contract, compared with only 11 completed sales in that price range for all of last year.

Note this is co-ops, not condos, so it excludes the Plaza, 15 Central Park West, and any other new developments….
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Fast Money

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:35

Word On The StreetThe stock market continued to struggle on Friday with Dow dropping 28 points and the NASDAQ falling 10 points. Guy Adami wouldn’t put too much into the drop on Friday. He thinks traders were just squaring up positions ahead of the long weekend. Jeff Macke explained that Friday could have been horrible, but it wasn’t. Tim Seymour says the bond market is steepening and that signals that addition rate cuts are priced in. Speculation hit Wall Street that Bear Stearns (BSC) is in talks with Citic Securites for a possible takeover. Finerman says the takeover might happened, but she wouldn’t buy the stock or short the stock on the news. Adami mentioned that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) was downgraded this week. He likes GS on a valuation basis. Best Buy (BBY) fell 2.5% after the firm cut their 2008 profit outlook. Macke says the market already priced BBY’s bad quarter in. Adami explained that Corning (GLW) was sold off as investors feared the weakness in BBY and Circuit City (CC) must mean GLW is struggling. He thinks GLW is a buy at $21. Commodities put in a strong week with platinum, coal, soybeans and natural gas all putting in a strong performance. Seymour says the big story is aluminum off the news of power outages in China and South Africa. He says ArcelorMittal (MT) and US Steel (X) look very good for plays on steel. Adami says the steels are about to get pricing power back. Wall Street whales were active this week with some big names disclosing sizable positions. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) reported postions in Kraft (KFT) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Bill Ackman sold his stake in McDonald’s (MCD) and added to his positions in Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD), Target Corporation (TGT) and Borders (BGP). Hedge fund Atticus added to its positions in Alcoa (AA) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Finerman says she is very interested in Buffett’s large stake in KFT and he likely bought it at higher prices. Adami likes Atticus’s move on Alcoa. Macke likes Ackman’s position in SHLD. He feels the SHLD is very interesting under $100.Ambac CEO IntervewAMBAC VIDEO HERESony Pictures Entertainment CEO InterviewSONY VIDEO HEREFood TradeFood makers like Heinz (HNZ) are trading higher while casual dining stocks like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) are selling off. What is the trade? Finerman explained that some of the growth in the food stocks comes from overseas and these firms are also benefiting from a weak dollar. Seymour explained he loves what Campbells (CPB) is doing in Russia and China and he would buy the stock. Macke recommends Hormel (HRL) for a play on spam. He also likes Heniz.Wal-Mart TradeWal-Mart (WMT) is set to report earnings on Tuesday. What is the trade? Macke thinks Wal-Mart’s earnings report will be ugly. He says investors can be long WMT in almost any economy. Adami says WMT has an attractive valuation. Finerman disclosed she is long WMT going into the earnings report. Adami also advised investors to watch Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) which will report earnings after the market close on Tuesday. He says HPQ has an attractive valuation.Eli Lilly CEO InterviewWATCH THE ELI LILLY CEO HEREPOPS&DROPSPOPS- Electronic Arts (ERTS) traded up 9%. Macke prefers Activision (ATVI). Comcast (CMCSA) traded up 18%. Finerman mentioned CMCSA announced a big buyback and a dividend increase. Precision Castparts (PCP) traded up 7%. Adami says PCP is a buy. Turkcell (TKC) traded up 12%. Seymour explained the gains were due to short covering and he likes the story. Macy’s (M) traded up 5%. Finerman says rumors are floating around Wall Street that M will do a big buy back. Priceline.com (PCLN) exploded higher by 22%. Adami noted the stock has a huge short interest, and he wouldn’t go raising into this stock. Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) traded up 14%. Seymour says sell ACH because they can’t produce more.DROPS- AIG (AIG) fell 9%. Adami says don’t touch it until they report later in the month. Tesoro (TSO) fell 3%. Finerman explained that Lehman Brothers (LEH) downgraded the refiners. UBS (UBS) fell 10%. Seymour says there are rumors of another $18 billion write-down. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) fell 3%. Macke says investors can start dipping their toe into CMG. Whole Foods Market (WFMI) fell 4%. Macke joked go long spam and short WFMI.Quicker Than The TickerAdami recommended natural gas play Apache (APA) on January 30th and on February 7th. He was dead right and the stock went up 13% from his call. On February 12th Finerman said short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH). She was on the money and the stock fell 20% since her call. On February 4th Macke reccomended buying Google Inc. (GOOG) at $515 for a trade. He was right and Google went up 7% from his call. On February 1st Seymour picked Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX) for a play on beer trends in Latin America. He was dead on and FMX went up 6% from his pick.Fast FireOn January 31st Adami recommended buying Home Depot (HD) on the dips. Adami blew the call and HD went down 11% from his recomendation. He still feels that HD will be the stock of 2008. On February 4th Seymour said he liked Gold Feilds (GFI). He missed the market and GFI went down 5%. He still likes GFI at current prices. On January 31st Finerman picked Broadridge (BR). Shares have fallen 8% from her call, but she is staying with BR for a play on increased proxy battles for 2008.Final TradeAdami favors Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS). Finerman says watch Crocs (CROX) into earnings. Seymour recommends Focus Media (FMCN).
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Northern Rock: Nationalized

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:16

Northern Rock will be nationalized, and the FT says that There Will Be Grumbling:

The government believes nationalisation is now the best option, even though it is likely to spark a political storm, an angry reaction from some shareholders and big job losses in the north-east of England.

All this depends, of course, on the baseline you’re using. There would be angry shareholders and laid-off workers whatever the outcome, but maybe it’s worse if the new owner is the government. On the other hand, maybe it’s better: since taxpayers were ultimately taking on the Rock’s risk anyway, it’s good that it’s also going to receive the Rock’s returns.
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FX: Regional Currencies Advance Against the Greenback

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:00

Following the run on weak U.S. data on Friday.…
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Asia’s most expensive rental markets

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 19:49

By Vipin Agnihotri The India Street is back with more real estate information for their readers. This time around, we are going to give you the list of Asia’s most expensive rental markets. Take a look. Hong Kong …
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TraderFeed: Money Continues to Flow Out of Stocks

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 19:25

Relative Adjusted Money Flow is a proprietary indicator I use to see if institutional volume is entering or leaving the stock market……
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Japanese Service Sector Activity Falls

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 19:00

Domestic sector weakening amid high prices and falling wages.…
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Zimbabwean Dollar Website of the Day

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 18:10

It gives me great pleasure to announce that Market Movers has nabbed itself 11,000 valuable pixels on the Million Zimbabwean Dollar Homepage, for the bargain price of just $0.41, plus a $0.35 paypal fee. From the FAQ:

8. How long will the site be online?
The site will be online for 5 years guaranteed (at least until 11th February 2013), however the aim is to keep the site online forever (or at least as long as Zimbabwe remains a country).
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Northern Rock Nationalized

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:38

According to The Wall Street Journal troubled British mortgage company Northern Rock wil be taken over by the British government. The newspaper writes “The U.K. Treasury has decided to nationalize troubled mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC in a surprise move that makes the government and British taxpayer the new owner of a financial institution that fell victim to the global credit crisis” In the US, it should be interesting to see if the Treasury will step forward with any similar rescue for firms like bond insurers Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI) Douglas A. McIntyre
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Financial Panics are Undiscerning, Example XXXIX in a Series

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:36

A fascinating example from a recent paper of how financial panics are undiscerning in their carnage and collateral damage. Many of the banks that failed during Great Depression bank panics were as healthy as the ones that didn’t: This paper … investigates whether the [Depression bank] panics resulted in the failure and liquidation of banks that might otherwise have been able to pursue a less disruptive resolution strategies such as merging with another institution or suspending operations and recapitalizing. Using data on individual state-chartered banks, I find that m…
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#Links

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:30

Northern Rock to be nationalised
The government believes nationalisation is now the best option, even though it is likely to spark a political storm, an angry reaction from some shareholders and big job losses in the north-east of England.
K…
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Hoaxing the Equity Analysts: But Can You Hoax a Hoaxer?

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:24

I’m mildly amused by the WSJ story this weekend about someone hoaxing his way onto company quarterly earnings calls. Here is an example from a recent Newell Rubbermaid c/call: Operator: Your next question comes from Budd Bugatch with Raymond James and Associates. Caller: Yes, this is actually Joe Herrick with Gutterman Research. A couple of things for you guys. Mark [Ketchum, CEO], regarding your operational improvement initiatives for 2008, what are going to be your top initiatives regarding lean, mean manufacturing, keeping in the Six Sigma? What effects do you see benefiting the bottom line? …
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Sneak Peek at Weekend Reading

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:11

Here is a sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column at TheStreet.com. High-end home sales soar in Bay Area (S.F. Chronicle) I’m about to pay way too much for a house, and I know it. Does that make me a fool? (Slate Magazine)…
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China’s Trade Surplus Narrows in January

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:00

But exports remain resilient.…
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Joe Rosenberg: A Pan to Microsoft/Yahoo

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:35

A fairly savage pan in the weekend Barron’s of the Microsoft/Yahoo deal courtesy of Loew’s Joe Rosenberg: Joe, you see opportunity in the stock market. Where do you want to begin? Let’s take the headline of the moment, Microsoft [ticker: MSFT]. When I was last interviewed in Barron’s, I was bullish on Microsoft, but I also was very critical of CEO Steve Ballmer’s leadership of the company. My view on both Microsoft and Ballmer hasn’t changed. It’s a bad reflection on Ballmer that he’s willing to pay a ridiculous price for Y…
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Love-Letter to Yahoo

17 February, 2008 Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:02

Now and then it’s fun to read the comments on the NY Times’ blogs. Here is one from the Bits blog by someone blaming Yahoo for the decline of Western Civilization — and it has sparked a mini-furor: Yahoo is on its last legs. And good riddance. While the internet is now turning into what it was invitable it would become–nothing but a forum for junky business and illiterate bloggers–yahoo has contributed to the rapid decline of mediocrity that is the hallmark of the United States of stupid people. The transition to News Corp would be a final decline into the abyss of nothingness from which it will,hopefully, never recover. Google is slighter better, but promotes the same mediocrity. It was a great shame that the internet was not, and is not, confined only to academics, and only serious ones at that. Mediocrity is the hall mark of the United States, and the internet has helped the American populace to decline to the last stages of degradiation of all that was beautiful, intellectual and moral. If there were a god, it would have designed the internet because of its ability to turn a slightly literate populace a into totally brain dead sub-human blob of shivering jelley….
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