Economy Blog

Monetary and fiscal policy reactions to a possible economic slowdown have boosted the Congressional Budget Office’s prediction for real gross domestic product growth in 2008 by 0.2 percentage point, according to a letter from the agency released Friday.
In January, the agency estimated real GDP for the calendar year would be 1.7%, but in a letter to Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., it announced that it will revise that estimate to 1.9%.
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addslashes(The Real Story Wrap: February 15

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Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) is becoming a regular in this club. Yet another low of $28.02 intraday from a high of $53.25. It actually closed at $28.62, so it closed above the prior $28.41 low. Arris Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ARRS). After an 86% drop in profit, shares plunge, targets are cut, and analysts downgrade, Arris lost 30% today and closed down at $5.50 from a former low of $6.91. The 52 week high is $17.89. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) A gold stock on the 52-week lows? Power issues prevail over high commodity prices… ouch! Trading at $33.75. The 52…
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addslashes(Top 10 Most Searched Stocks on TheStreet.com, February 15

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addslashes(News You Need: Wal-Mart, Baidu

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Recession-proof?

Annelena Lobb reports:
Flaring food prices may be worrisome, but SPAM is having a party this quarter.
H…
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$$$ How To: Make Big Profits Illegally (and Maybe Keep Them, Too) [NYT]

$$$ 36 Hours In The Life Of A Trading Addict [Tim Sykes]

$$$ Michiel de Boer [WallStrip]

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If you think the bank won’t foreclose on you - you should head to Mexico next week with me (I will be vacationing - not hiding - with Mrs. Lindzon) - because they will and are ready.
You can’t even begin thinking about a bottom in banks until we see the banks just own up and put people out of their misery. They are starting.
There is TONS of money on the sidelines just itching to peck away and get their greedy hands on the banks new paper.
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(click image for full power point presentation; via The Big Picture)
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addslashes(Aerosmith a Real Guitar Hero? Dream On

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I wasn’t too surprised to learn that Ben Bernanke is an optimist. But Peter Orszag too? The director of the CBO always seems pretty downbeat to me. Yet today, releasing an updated economic forecast, he says that "CBO’s projections do not show the slowdown in economic growth becoming severe enough to meet the economic definition of recession". In fact, he projects 1.9% growth in real GDP this year.
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Investors have lost confidence in the liquidity of auction-rate securities. (NYTimes.com)
“Commodity shocks don’t only happen in oil.” (FT Alphaville)
What is the shape of the yield curve …
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Dealbreaker notes that finding economic data has just gotten more difficult. “The government is shutting down its online clearing house of U.S. economic data. EconomicIndicators.gov is maintained by the Economics and Statistics Administration of the Department of Commerce. It brings together data from various government agencies in one convenient place. Readers can see GDP and import-export figures, which are collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and numbers for retail sales and durable goods shipments, collected by the Census Bureau,” …
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This morning I was reading the headlines at Techmeme and saw that Amazon’s S3 service was down. I knew the stock would catch up to the news and should have shorted the open.
It’s big news for the day, but I think that’s about it.
The nerds will blather on about it, but shit like this is bound to happen when you start taking over the world. Amazon’s S3 service is well on the way. I hope they handle the customer servoce well as I am sure it is scary for most Web companies that rely on it, but it’s just a lesson and a reminder that nothing is foolproff. Amazon is lucky they got it back up and working fast and that the market is not in a worse mood today.
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The New York Post says that Yahoo’s board is splitting into factions, with one group taking its fiduciary duties seriously, and the other, more emotional, group supporting CEO Jerry Yang’s attempts to rebuff the Microsoft takeover bid. It also reports that Yahoo’s share price is still trading at a premium to the bid:

Yang pleaded his case in a letter to shareholders Wednesday night, reiterating that Microsoft’s bid substantially undervalues the company.
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I have now gotten 5 e-mails plus commenters asking about closed-end funds. I disclose that I play in closed-end funds a fair amount, and I doubled my position today. These funds can be kind of thin, so I don’t want to talk about what I actually bought, but here was my process. You’ll need Bloomberg, although there are probably other ways to skin the same cat…1) Run a FSRC. Select all closed-end funds with the objective type being municipal. Should be 265 of them….
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It looked like I would be stopped out of my last bit of Chipotle’s this morning. It was upsetting for sure because I have owned it from day one and been blogging about it pre-IPO. There must be 100 posts where I have mentioned it . With it’s close back above $104 I will keep it and use today’s low as a final stop.
It has been such a great ride and I have even traded the beast well, chronicling it along the way. One of my biggest winners where I just could see and feel the stock higher.
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Fellow anchors express shock that JC would deign to speak to her, chest bump anyway, commence ‘Happy Hour’ pre-game.

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This just in: Warren Buffett is pretty smart. Wednesday, the Oracle of Omaha offered to reinsure the entire municipal book of FGIC, Ambac, and MBIA, some $800 billion in bonds, in exchange for 150% of the “unearned” premium on those insurance policies. No word on whether he also asked for a pound of flesh or any one’s first born.Anyway, it was pretty obvious from the beginning that none of the monolines would be very keen to such a plan. By accepting, the monolines would be ceding the best part of their business, leaving only the shaky structured finance business remaining. On CNBC yesterday, Buffett tried to explain that the plan would be a net increase in capital for the monolines, so in theory the monolines would be able to keep their gilt-edged rating. Somehow he managed to keep a straight face. While technically the monolines may have more free capital after ceding the munis, the remaining portfolio would be substantially more risky, and I doubt the new capital ratios would please the ratings agencies. For what its worth, Ambac has already told Buffett thanks but no thanks….
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Some agriculture and coal should be taken off of the table. From Fast Money, Guy Adami joined Cramer. Adami told us to jump on Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) around $85. He also pointed to Trinity (TRN), Wabtec (WAB) and Greenbrier (GBX). TRN was called the “quintessential late cycle stock.” Last Cramer told us that iRobot (IRBT) is “not for him.”
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