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Three Common Mistakes in Interpreting the Employment Report

There are three things that nearly everyone does wrong in the monthly discussion of the employment report. The first two are comments I made earlier today on RealMoney.

Forgetting that it is a survey.
I am mystified by the apparent willingness to draw big conclusions from
a single month’s employment number. The non-farm payroll report is
based upon a (voluntary) survey. The responses come in over a
three-month period, and that is the reason for revisions. When all of
the responses are in there will still be a 90% confidence interval of
+/- 100K jobs. Think about it. The actual job growth for this month
(something we will N…
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 23:27

Write-Offs: 02.01.08

$$$ Bernanke 2010 [NewsGroper]

$$$ Battleship [Portfolio]

$$$ Wanted: Your Toys [craigslist]

$$$ Reposted for weekend inspiration. [YouTube]
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 23:06

Blog Roll — Buying and Selling

Charles Kirk answers reader email, saying he’s sticking with his bearish outlook. “No matter what your opinion is of the Federal Reserve, the powerful are doing their best to manage and move the market in a manner that we’ve never seen before,” he writes. “I think ultimately this strategy will backfire but probably not in way many expect. By preventing the market from going down naturally, I think they also limit the upside potential for U.S. equities.”
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 23:03

News You Need: Microsoft, Yahoo

addslashes(News You Need: Microsoft, Yahoo

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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:55

Jobs Of The Week: JPMorgan, BNP Paribas, SAC?

Any of those firms interest you? They’re all hiring. Recently laid off? Bored? Have a look-see.

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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:45

How Google is Like a Hedge Fund

Big stand-alone hedge funds generally did well in 2007; hedge funds owned by investment banks, by contrast, did much worse. I can’t help but see an analogy here: Microsoft is bringing Yahoo in-house, to compete with the big stand-alone Google. But internet advertising is not what Microsoft is good at, just like hedge funds are not what Bear Stearns is good at.R…
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:43

Real Story Wrap: February 1, 2008

addslashes(Real Story Wrap: February 1, 2008

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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:30

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Flowserve (FLS), Dolby (DLB) & Micros (MCRS) Into New Bases

Today's SelfInvestors Leading Stocks Moving on Earnings
getting this out too late again.. one of those weeks

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Medical Appliances & Equipment, fundamental rank [24/30], up 20%, gapped up above the 50 day moving average which should be the beginnings of a new healthy base
• Flowserve (FLS) Diversified Electronics, fundamental rank [24/30], up 17%, gapped up above […]
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:13

Jim Cramer’s Stop Trading

Norfok Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) were called buys on U.S. coal exports today. There is a worldwide shortage of coal. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) was also cited here. Nuclear power was cited as not as strong with only NRG Energy Inc. (N…
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:06

Top 10 Most Searched Stocks on TheStreet.com, February 1

addslashes(Top 10 Most Searched Stocks on TheStreet.com, February 1

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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:57

Profiting From Volatility

Turbulent times in the financial markets may not always be fruitful for firms running money, but for those overseeing all of the trading, it’s a bounty for the bottom line. CME Group, the parent of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, said today that they experienced their second-busiest month in history — surpassed only by August 2007, when it looked like the world was coming to an end.
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:54

Mstislav Rostropovich

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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:42

MicroSoft now Micro’Whatever’ and Micro’Bleh’

The market has decided pretty seriously on this one. Microsoft has lost over $20 billion in market cap on an up day in the market, since offering $46 billion for Yahoo this morning.
Yahoo is getting a smoking deal.
This Steve Ballmer is a train out of control. Wealth destroyer. He must have picture of Bill Gates doing some crazy shit at Comdex.
He should have been fired about $100 billion ago.
I have looked really hard at Yahoo as it kept going down but they had no catalyst. A bet on a buyout from a putz like Ballmer is not a catalyst. He must have stood over at yahoo HQ just barking, snorting and sweating on people till they succumbed. Truly, he should have offered $16 and offered to help spin shit off. There is no way other bidders could have been frothing this up.
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:01

52-Week Low Club (AVID, CERN, DRIV, MIL, NZ, OMCL, HPOL, FLE, ACTU)

These are some of the more active stocks that were trading on new 52-week lows today: Avid Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: AVID). Selling at lowest level since 2003 today at around $19.20 due to downgrades and poor outlook. The former low was $23.50. Cerner Corp. (NASDAQ: CERN). This healthcare solutions company isn’t looking so healthy after disappointing quarter, although isn’t hasn’t spent the whole day trading under the 52-week low. Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV). Not meeting the street, the e-commerce company was trading at $30 at mid-day. The prior 52 week low was $32. Millipore Corp. (NYSE: MIL). Low sales…
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 21:01

Midday Tidbits — Benefiting from Yahoo

A few hedge funds stand to clean up in the Yahoo deal if Microsoft does end up buying the company. TCS Capital Management, a hedge fund firm in New York run by former journalist Eric Semler, owned 7.4 million shares as of Sept. 30, the latest data available. Suttonbrook Capital, which has taken a big loss in its position in United Rentals, has 7.3 million Yahoo shares, and Och-Ziff Management has five million shares. &…
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:59

Should Uncle Sam Do More for Small Business?

What’s in the new economic stimulus plan for small businesses?
The bipartisan package, touted by President Bush in his State of the Union Address, offers some tax breaks to businesses, including:

Doubling the amount of money that businesses can write off on their taxes for their 2008 business expenses — such as machinery, vehicles, office furniture and computers — to $250,000 from the 2007 limit of $125,000.
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:53

Harry Macklowe Takes a Bath

How much money has New York property magnate Harry Macklowe lost over the past year? Jennifer Forsyth in the WSJ says that it’s more than $2 billion, although it’s not obvious where she’s getting her numbers from. Mish is more precise, saying that $2.4 billion has been "vaporized", although I’m unclear where that number comes from either.
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:33

ISM Indicates Perplexingly Strong GDP Growth

With today’s bounceback, the Institute for Supply Management’s headline index correlates to economic growth at an annualized 3% in January, well above most forecasts.
The ISM’s main manufacturing gauge for last month, based on a survey of purchasing executives, rose 2.3 percentage points to 50.7, putting it back into expansionary territory. (Readings above 50 indicate growth.) The gains came largely from increases in new orders, production and inventories. The latest report includes r…
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:29

Let’s Talk About Sex (Alternatively, Let’s Not Talk About It, Because Someone’s "A Gentleman")

Well, I spoke to 1-2, who’s taking the day off from work to recover from his date with ‘girl’ (kidding, he always takes Fridays off, sometimes Mondays, too, and every other Wednesday, and the second and fourth Tuesdays of each month). On the one hand, it sounds like they had a nice little first date. On the other, 1-2 didn’t give me shit! Honestly, the whole experience (the recap, not the date) was like pulling teeth. I get that he has to “play it cool” and “respect” her by not kissing and telling but John Francis Carney III, Esquire! show me some freaking gratitude. I brought you two together, I facilitated this whole thing. I’m not asking you scream out my name in the throes of passion (though people often do) or let me babysit the kids but show a little leg for god’s sake.
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:24

ExxonMobil’s Earnings

One of the big stories today is ExxonMobil’s (XOM) record earnings. For 2007, the company earned $40.6 billion, the most ever for an American company. For the fourth-quarter, the earned $11.7 billion, which is also a record.

Despite the huge numbers, it’s really not as impressive as it sounds. First, XOM’s net increased by less than 3% last which is less than the growth of the economy. In real terms, this year’s profit is less than last year’s. Thanks to fewer shares, EPS rose by 10.2%. Also, the company’s profit margins slipped slightly from 10.5% to 10%. Finally, the company paid over $100 billion in combined taxes for the year….
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1 February, 2008| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:07

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