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17 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 6:04

European Central Bank: Hedge funds did not likely “play a central role” in August’s mayhem

The European Central Bank weighted in this month on the state of the hedge fund industry with some interesting original analysis of “crowded trades”, leverage and the “liquidity mismatch”….
Original Source: allaboutalpha.com

17 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 1:00

I only hope that when the data is analyzed…

… a strength can be found. Or at least, that’s FGIC’s only hope. Moody’s placed the erstwhile GE subsidiary on negative watch late on Friday. When I first started my career, FGIC had the reputation for being the most conservative of the major insurers. Now they are the one in the most trouble. Moody’s also put XLCA (subsidiary of SCA) on negative watch as well. Both will need to raise capital over the next couple months if they want to keep their gilt-edged rating….
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15 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:24

Nuclear Option : Dump Basel II

I have been saying this for about 10 years, world is catching up…
The Government must suspend a set of key banking regulations at the heart of the current financial crisis or risk seeing the economy spiral towards a future that could “make 1929 look like a walk in the park”, one of Britain’s leading economists has warned.
In C…
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15 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:24

Goldman Sachs Mortality Index

Just what the world needed : real-time mortality information.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. announced the first of a new series of indices to help financial institutions with exposure to American mortality and longevity rates better understand their risk in these positions.
The initial index will independently track monthly a pool of 46,290 a…
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 20:16

Growing Cental European Media.

The only one Czech blue chip company which is also traded on US stock markets continues with definite bull trend. If you look at 6 years charts share price goes just sharply up.This year Central European Media (CETV) gained 40%. The second best performing company among Czech blue chip cap. Shares were rapidly rising especially at the beginning of the year, Ukrainian concession was over but situation was resolved promptly. Plus very good earnings results and introduction of new investor (APAX funds). Last but not least appreciation of Central and Eastern European currencies helps to get better consolidated earnings reports in USD.h…
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 17:12

CEE emerging stock markets.

Shortly before end of the year Central and Eastern stock markets brought positive value on YTD basis. The best performing is Czech stock market with 16,7% and eventually over take major Polish stock market (12,7%). Czech index PX50 was more stable during recent turmoils than Polish WIG20. Stock exchange in Budapest is with 8,3% and Austrian stock market, which was booming in last couple of years, is ending almost unchanged with 1,5%.http://stockweb.blogspot.com/atom.xml
…
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:23

Well, what would you like?

I’ve said it before. We’ve moved beyond “good” solutions to the mortgage crisis. There is no reasonable step which would prevent large scale mortgage foreclosures, or continued pressure on credit spreads and other risk prices.However, we can prevent the problems in housing from s…
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 12:59

Citi SIVs “Rescue”

From the facts sheet:
Any losses resulting from changes in the market values of the assets and liabilities are first borne by the junior note holders up to the value of their investments, which had a market value of $2.5 billion on December 12, 2007.
The total value of the assets and liabilities on December 12, 2007, were each $62 billion, which includes cash and cash equivalents of $13 billion in the assets and the $2.5 billion of junior notes in the liabilities….
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 12:16

Secrets of Success : Bill Gates Edition

“Secrets of success” day !
A solid working knowledge of productivity software and other IT tools has become a basic foundation for success in virtually any career.
I don’t think you can overemphasise the importance of having a good background in maths and science.
If you look at the most interesting things that have emerged in the last decade -…
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 11:07

Secrets of Success : James Simons Edition

This is behing a $ wall at Breakingviews.com but free reading at Le Monde, however not everybody speaks french so here the article in full.
The simple secrets of success By Pablo Triana
Renaissance:…
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 10:09

Putnam Lovell’s “Belle Epoque” for Money Management

A new report on the future of money management says we’ve just left a “Belle Epoque”. But we say the Belle Epoque is just beginning….
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14 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 1:00

Restoring Market Liquidity in a Financial Crisis

Speech by Timothy Geithner, FRBNY President and Chief Executive Officer at the Second New York Fed-Princeton University Liquidity Conference today.
The conditions that led to this crisis took a long time to develop and they will take some time to resolve.
The initial spark to the pressures we observe in markets today was the s…
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13 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 16:01

Fifth birthday of bull run making mutual funds look better than they are

Markets hit rock bottom five years ago this fall. As a result, 5 year returns are currently peaking - making closet indexing mutual funds look pretty smart…too smart….
Original Source: allaboutalpha.com

13 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 1:00

Hedge Fund Leverage

Excerpt on leverage from Measuring the crowding of hedges fund trades
Information on hedge fund leverage is difficult to obtain, but information available in one hedge fund database confirms that credit oriented strategies tend to be associated with higher degrees of leverage ( and therefore have greater potential to disrupt the stability of credit markets.
All things being equal, higher leverage proportionally amplifies the impact of asset price changes and increases the vulnerability of investment positions to sharp and unfavourable price movements. L…
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12 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 23:22

Prediction Market : Citi Dividend To Be Cut

Based on implied forward prices derived from options markets, a 40% dividend cut is priced in,that would be 32 cents per share down from 54 cents.
From Reuters:
…
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12 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 22:28

Pundit of the Day

Given the worsening of the global liquidity and credit crunch – with a variety of short term interbank Libor spreads relative to policy rates and relative to government bonds of same maturity being even higher recently than at the peak of the crisis in August – it is no surprise that central banks were really desperate to do something.
E…
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12 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 18:21

Well, Killinger, did WaMu survive?

Apparently Washington Mutual is not as well capitalized as we were lead to believe. As recently as November 7, Washington Mutual management was intimating that they thought their capital was adequate. Now they are saying they need to raise $2.5 billion in new capital through a convertible preferred and will cut their dividend by 75%. The combination of dividend cut and preferred offering will increase capital by $3.9 billion. L…
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12 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 15:18

Nice Job, Ben

What they said :
Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing measures designed to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets….
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12 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 14:37

FDIC’s Sheila Bair on Basel II and Models

The first lesson of the crisis in terms of the Basel II capital adequacy rules is “beware models!”
Current financial market turmoil has shown up the weaknesses of the models used in the advanced approaches to assessing credit risk under the international Basel II bank safety rules, top US banking supervisor Sheila Bair s…
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12 December, 2007| Economy | Comments (0) @ 8:52

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